AI Developments

The key focus of this section is the time horizon of when sophisticated AI becomes AGI, which later on can become ASI. If the latter will happen 100 years form now, people will most likely go on with their daily life unconcerned about the promises and perils of AI. But if it is going to happen in a decade, then alarm bells will ring all over the place.

The How Soon subsection looks at the overview of this important part of the global AI debate. As can be seen, the estimates vary, even among the experts. We can also track these developments in the subsections of AI hardware, software, and applications development.

These developments can then help us gain a deeper perspective on what is going on. Ultimately, no one has privileged access to the future. So one of the most useful global principles to use in this case is the “Precautionary Principle” adopted by 100 governments during the Earth Summit in 1992 at Rio de Janiero, Brazil. What this means is that we have to assume that AI will come much faster than anticipated and in a form that will be very challenging, mostly likely precipitating a global crisis.