In 2017, a research team headed by Katja Grace of the Future of Humanity Institute asked experts in AI when they thought artificial intelligence would be better and cheaper than humans at a number of tasks. The consensus is that there is a 50% chance that AI will be better than humans at everything in about 45 years.
Implications for AI
Predictions such as this must be taken with a grain of salt. After all, AI experts also predicted in 2015 that AI would be better than humans at Go by 2027, but it only took two years before an AI algorithm bested the top human Go player in the world. [Alpha Go Zero Shows How Close We Are To Generalization Of Artificial Intelligence]
[contentcards url=”https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607970/experts-predict-when-artificial-intelligence-will-exceed-human-performance/” target=”_blank”]